Who Will the Steelers
Draft?
Pre-Draft Analysis - 2006
Even though the Steelers were champions, all season I held my breath with the Defense. It was good, but not close to dominating. I think all the praise for their success should go to the D Coaching staff for getting the maximum out of those players. Casey Hampton and Troy Polamalu were the only dominating players on the D. Most troubling, the pressure on the QB was often lacking, particularly against division foes Cincinnati and Baltimore which shows that those offenses got used to and learned the complex Blitz schemes created by Dick LeBeau and Company. This defense did not win 1-on-1 physical battles consistently enough to be dominating. I think the Steelers need to re-establish that dominant physical presence on D and it will start in the Draft.
Steeler Draft Strategy
Look for productive players from major Division I college programs in the first 3-4 rounds, and then chances on high-potential players from smaller, less prestigious football programs. The Steelers were awarded 3 compensatory draft picks to help offset the losses of free agents last year. The picks are two 4th rounders (#131 and #133) and a fifth rounder (#167). I would look for the Steelers to use their existing 4th 5th or 6th round picks to trade up in the second round and get a player they covet.
Linebacker
Joey Porter was effective, but clearly has lost a step against the top Left Tackles. Clark Haggans play has improved dramatically, but he is somewhat fragile. James Farrior has one more good year left with the Steelers, IMHO and Larry Foote just gets by on smarts while being undersized and slow. For the Steelers D to thrive and take pressure off the Secondary they NEED QB pressure from the Linebackers. This draft is packed with LB talent which is good for the Steelers. As always, the team will be looking for LB's who fit the 3-4 defensive scheme:
AJ Hawk - 6-1, 250 Ohio State - Top 5 pick
Ernie Sims - 6-1, 230 FL State - Mid First Round. Great burst as a pass rusher.
Chad Greenway - 6-2, 240 Iowa - 1st Round
Bobby Carpenter - 6-3, 255 Ohio State - 1st Round. Steelers have their eye on this guy
Thomas Howard - 6-3, 235 UTEP - Great speed (4.4) and lots of potential, 2nd Round
DeMeco Ryans - 6-1, 235 Alabama - Very productive but lacks great athleticism, 2nd round
Abdul Hodge - 6-0, 230 Iowa, 2nd Round
Manny Lawson - 6-6, 245 NC State -- Played DE. Great 4.4 speed but is he stout enough to stop the run? Very good on Special Teams. 2nd round
D'Qwell Jackson - 6-0, 225, 2-3rd Round, Not big enough to play 3-4 D
Gerris Wilkinson - 6-3, 234, Ga Tech - 3rd Round, Could play ILB in 3-4
Parys Haralson - 6-1 250 Tennesee - Jim Wexell is high on this guy even though he is a tad slow in the 40. Very productive in a big program. 3rd round
Jon Alston - 6-1, 223, Stanford - Could be moved to Safety. 3rd round
Stanley McClover - 6-3, 260 , Auburn - 3rd Round
Elvis Dumervil - 5-11 255 Louisville - Led the nation in sacks with 20. 4th round
Free Safety
Chris Hope was not signed and for good reason. The Steelers need a Play-making Free safety. Someone who can police the deep middle of the field, disrupt passes while the ball is in the air and be a sure tackler. Free agent signing Ryan Clark from Washington looks to be a slight improvement over Hope. The Steelers can flip-flop their safeties around so they may take someone who played Strong safety in college. This year's Free Safety prospects are still very good:
Michael Huff - 6-0 195 Texas - Total stud who played every DB position in college and will probably play corner in the NFL - top 10 pick
Jason Allen - 6-1, 210 Tennessee - Didn't play his senior season due to knee injury, but showed that he recovered at the Combine (4.4-40). 1st Round
Donte Whitner - 5-10, 200 Ohio state - Experienced leader who looks like a faster version of Michael Doss to me. A cover-2 safety - 1st Round
Daniel Bullocks - 6-1, 210 Nebraska - Smoked at the Combine (4.4-40) and measures up to Huff for size and speed. Played 3 years and has NFL leadership potential. I like this guy a lot. 1st-2nd Round
Ko Simpson - 6-1, 205 S. Carolina - Denver may snatch this guy in round #1, or he could slide into round #2. A lot of upside, but he may not be smart enough (Wonderlic=10) to be a FS..
Darnell Bing - 6-2, 227 USC - Big guy who is definitely a Strong Safety. If the Steelers got him, eventually it could be two Trojans starting at Safety. 2nd Round
Greg Blue - 6-2, 215 Georgia - Made a lot of big hits, but didn't time well at the Combine. He shows good burst in games, can play the deep middle and makes plays on the ball. 2nd round
Pat Watkins - 6-4, 210 Florida St. - Amazing
size for a safety but could be too fragile and weak to support the run and tackle NFL running backs. Could be a great developmental prospect. 3rd round
Roman Harper - 6-0, 200 Alabama - So-so speed and size, but awesome instincts and intangibles.
3rd round
Anthony Smith - 6-0, 195 Syracuse - See Roman Harper, above. 3rd round
Defensive End (3-4 Scheme only)
The Steelers may consider Brett Keisel a linebacker becasue he is so fast and mobile, not to mention a tad light. But from what the papers say, he will be starting in place of Kimo Von Olehoffen in 2006. It's an odd fit I think. Keisel looks more like an prototypical up-the-field 4-3 DE rather than a run-clogging 3-4 DE. I don't think he is big enough to stuff the run or take on two blockers. Aaron Smith's play plateaued last year, but still can be counted on. For depth, the Steelers don't have anyone else besides the recently re-signed 2001 6th round pick Rodney Bailey, which makes this position paper thin.
Haloti Ngata - 6-4, 340, Oregon - Mid 1st round
Orien Harris - 6-3, 310, Miami - Brother of 2004 49er 1st rounder Kwame Harris, 3rd round
Rodrique Wright - 6-5, 300, Texas - Never lived up to potential in college. 3rd Round
Dusty Dvoracek - 6-3, 305, Oklahoma - Has a drinking problem but scored 41 on the wonderlic, 4th round
Barry Cofield - 6-4, 300, Northwestern - Teamate of Trai Essex, 4th-5th round
Manaia Brown - 6-3, 300, BYU - Can't have enough BYU D-Linemen. 4th-5th round
Kedric Golston - 6-4, 300, Georgia - 6th-7th Round
Steve Williams - 6-3, 300,
Northwest Missouri State - 6th-7th Round
Wide Receiver
Hines Ward and Cedric Wilson are the starters. Quincy Morgan was re-signed for 1 year to at least be a kick returner and play outside on passing downs. However, I think he has enough talent to start opposite Hines Ward. I'm not convinced Wilson is an every down player. Morgan's problem has been a lack of concentration and maturity. Besides these three, there's no proven player although Nate Washington shows promise. The Steelers need to draft someone to replace Randel-El; play the slot and return punts. A quick, smurf-type of receiver. The receivers this year are not as good as years past.
Santonio Holmes - 5-11, 185 Ohio St. - Mid 1st Round
Chad Jackson - 6-1, 205, Florida St. - Looks like Jevon Walker, Mid 1st Round
Sinorice Moss - 5-8, 180, Miami - Brother of Redskin Pro Bowler Santana Moss. Didn't produce much in college but has game-breaking speed (4.3-40). Late 1st-2nd round
Derek Hagan - 6-2, 210 Arizona - Had big production at a big program, 2nd Round Brandon Marshall - 6-4, 230 - Had huge game in the Hawaii Bowl (11-203 yds) and is a sleeper. Pittsburgh native. 2nd round
Maurice Stovall - 6-4, 215, Notre Dame - Had a big senior season, is still learning the position. The Steelers love players from Notre Dame. 2nd round
Jonathan Orr - 6-2, 200 Wisconsin - Reminds me of Troy Williamson who went #7 overall in 2005. Size and speed (4.4-40) will compensate for lack of college stats.
Michael Robinson 6-2, 215 - Penn St. - Played QB in college but cosistently made plays with his legs. Great leadership qualities. 3rd round
Martin Nance - 6-4, 215 Miami, OH - favorite target of Big Ben in college. 3rd round
Demetrius Williams - 6-2, 200, Oregon - Looks like Chad Johnson, but doesn't play like him. - 3rd round
Greg Jennings - 5-11, 200, W. Michigan - Doesn't seem interested in blocking. 3rd round
Mike Haas - 6-0, 205 Oregon St. - A Hines Ward type, not fast or big by today's standards, but has great hands, runs precise routes and plays tough. A Steeler pick waiting to happen....3rd-4th round.
Travis Wilson - 6-2, 215 - Looked like a 1st round pick before he got hurt. Lots of potential. 3rd-4th round.
Jeremy Bloom - 5-9, 175, Colorado - Guy skis for the last two years and then 1 week after the Olympics, he runs a 4.4-40. Don't know if he can play football, but he's an amazing athlete. 3rd-4th round.
Jason Avant - 6-1, 205 Michigan - A tad slow (4.6-40) but productive on a non-passing team. 4th round
Brad Smith 6-2, 215, Missouri - Would be a very good WR, but seems to insist on wanting to play QB. 4th round.
Steelers First Round Draft Selection Probability*:
Pre-Draft Odds |
Actual Draft Position |
| Jason Allen, S - 1:4 | #16 - Miami |
| Bobby Carpenter, LB - 1:5 | #18 - Dallas |
| Ko Simpson, S - 1:7 | #105 - Buffalo |
| Sinorice Moss, WR - 1:8 |
#44 - New York Giants |
| Daniel Bullocks, S - 1:10 | #40 - Detroit |
| Chad Jackson, WR - 1:10 | #36 - New England |
| Thomas Howard, LB - 1:10 | #38 - Oakland |
| Len Dale White, RB - 1:15 | #45 - Tennessee |
| Donte Whitner, S - 1:25 | #8 - Buffalo |
| Darnell Bing, S - 1:40 | #101 - Oakland |
| Manny Lawson, LB - 1:75 | #22 -SF |
| DeMeco Ryans, LB - 1:100 | #33 - Houston |
| Jack Lambert - 1:1,000,000 |
*Probability is based upon who is likely to be available, and whom the Steelers may pick from the players still available at the #32 position. It is not an indication of whom the Steelers like best, or whom Mark Berger likes best.
updated 04/30/06