Who Will the Steelers Draft?
Pre-Draft Analysis - 2003
The NFL draft has always been vital for the Steelers - a team that frugally, but wisely spends their NFL millions. Historically, players were allowed to develop for a couple of years and then expected to contribute. Now, with the salary cap and free agency, high draft picks are expected to contribute immediately to the team's starting units. Every 1st and 2nd round pick over the last 3 years (The Colbert/Cower era) has become a starter in their rookie season:
Draft
Year |
Round
|
Player - Position - School |
2000 |
#1 |
Plaxico Burress - WR - Michigan St. |
#2 |
Marvel Smith - OT - Arizona St. | |
2001 |
#1 |
Casey Hampton - DT -Texas |
#2 |
Kendrell Bell - LB - Georgia | |
2002 |
#1 |
Kendall Simmons - OG - Auburn |
#2 |
Antwaan Randle El* - WR - Indiana |
Steeler Draft Strategy
The Steelers' draft formula is to pick proven college
players from Big-time college programs in competitive
conferences like the Big 10, ACC and SEC. The bitter disapointment
of 1st round flops Jermain Stephens (1996) and Troy Edwards
(1999) who went to small universities is still fresh in
the mouth of the Steelers organization. By contrast, the
past three Steeler #1 picks were all outstanding players
from Big schools with very competitive college programs.
This year should be no different. Expect them to pick
an All-American calibre player who was a leader on their
team and stood out nationally.
Linebacker
While all the talk since the end of the season has been
about the "terrible" secondary, the Steelers
really need a new Outside Linebacker
(OLB) to eventually replace Jason Gildon and get more
pressure on opposing QB's. Indeed, the Steeler seconday
fell apart in the playoffs as Kelly Holcomb of the Browns
and the Titans' Steve McNair threw for a combined 800
yards. Still, the key to stopping the pass is an effective
pass rush - not faster defensive backs. Just ask the current
champions, Tampa Bay, why they won. The Bucanneers stopped
the #1 passing offense and intercepted Rich Gannon a dozen
times becasue their defense got pressure on Gannon.
Although the Steeler defense last year sacked opposing QB's 50 times (#3 in the NFL), there wasn't consistent fear in opposing QB's eyes like there was in the past. The repeated breakdowns in 3rd in long situations is the best evidence of an inadequate pass rush last year. No team's QB should be able to consistently look comfortably down field 20 yards and deliver a well-thrown ball. Let's face it, the Steelers defense rarely scared anyone last year and a new pass rushing end/linebacker to replace Gildon or Haggans will restore that fear in opponents. Cower has diagnosed the problem simillarly, and his cure is to get Kendrell Bell on the field in 3rd downs. The problem is where? OLB Joey Porter is excellent in the middle of field in the Dime Defense's 4-1-6 allignment. Bell was tried at Rush end in preseason last year opposite Jason Gildon, but he didn't look good. Clark Haggans played there all year instead and looked worn down by the 2nd half of the season after getting 6 sacks in the first half. One possibility is to play a 3-2-6 Dime with Porter and Bell in the middle of field, or even a 4-2-5 Nickel. In any case, the Steelers need a new, young, QB-hurrying OLB.
The Outside Linebacker prospects for the Steelers are college defensive linemen who are fast enough to play OLB in the Steelers' 3-4 defense. There aren't any prospects that fit this description who will be available for the Steelers in Round 1, though many will be available later:
Jerome McDougle –
6-2, 256, Miami; Probably won't be available for the Steelers
in Round 1. Ran a 4.61 40 at the combines. Would be a
good Strong Side LB. Round 1.
Antwan Peek – 6-2, 245, Cincinnati -- Ran
4.52 40 at the Combines, Round 2 or 3. Visited the Steelers
in early April.
Alonzo Jackson – FSU, 6-3, 265:
Reports are that he dominated the Hula Bowl and simply
could not be blocked coming off the edge. 4.7-40, Round
3 or 4.
Bradie James – 6-2, 240, LSU, 4.55
speed, Round 3 or 4
Tully Banta-Cain - 6-2, 265, Cal, Ran
4.62 40, 4-5th round
Chaun Thompson – 6-2, 240, West
Texas A&M -- Ran 4.48 in the 40 at the Combines
Shurron Pierson – 6-2, 247, S.
Florida: Ran a 4.6 40 twice at the combines and reports
are that he looked good in LB drills. Like Porter and
Gildon, Pierson played DE in college. 4th round prospect
Sam Williams - 6-4,250, Fresno State,
ran a 4.59 40. 5-7th round
Strong
Safety
Lee Flowers has been a good Strong Safety for the
Steelers. But the fact is, he is a has-been. The Steelers
need to find a replacement for him who can cover receivers.
In my mind, that's Mike Logan and I think Chris Hope will
replace Brent alexander at FS in 2004, if not sooner.
His durability is spotty, so the Steelers need to find
another Safety who can cover fast Tight Ends and big Wideouts.
All attention so far has been on drafting a new Strong
safety. The problem is, for several reasons, college safeties
don't come in and start for the Steelers. First, the Steeler
defense is very complicated for rookies to understand
and implement out of college, although FS Darren Perry
did it in 1992 as a Rookie. Second, they have to be very
vocal and direct the secondary in coverages, which is
hard if you're at all uncertain of it. Finally, there
aren't any great prospects in the draft who are big and
can cover. A future starting SS might come from this list:
Troy Polamalu (USC, 5-10,
206) According to both the BLESTO and National scouting
combines, Polamalu is the top senior safety prospect in
the 2003 draft. MVP of his team last year. Ran an amazing
4.35-40 and vertical jumped 43" at his "Pro
day" workout, but isn't considered very good in coverage.
Is short by NFL standards and he has a history of injuries
(i.e., 2003 Orange Bowl). Late 1st -early 2nd round
Mike Doss (OSU, 5-10, 207) has been crowned
the best safety prospect in the draft but he didn't look
spectactular in games and he doesn't have great athleticism.
Ran 4.5-40 and vertical jumped 39" at his "Pro
day" workout. Late 1st -early 2nd round
Cie Grant – Ohio State 6-1 228
pounds - Played in front of Doss at OSU as a starting
Linebacker and moved to cornerback in 2001 because
he wanted to help the team. SS Carnell Lake made a simillar
move for the Steelers in 1995-96. He prefers physical
play which sounds like a Steeler SS to me. Might fit the
bill as a Safety who can cover. Ran a 4.5-40 at his Pro-day,
twice, same as Doss! Unanimous choice as the recipient
of OSU's Most Inspirational Player award in 2002. 2-4th
round
Terrence Kiel – 5'11, 205, Texas
A+M, Ran 4.46 at the Combines, 2-4th round
Bryan Scott , 6-1, 215, Penn St., ran
4.45-40 at his pro-day, 3-5th round (played CB)
Curry Burns – 6-0, 215, Louisville
- Ran 4.53 40 at Combines, 2001 Liberty Bowl Defensive
MVP, 3-5th round
Charles Drake - Michigan 6-1 205 pounds,
3-5th round , 4.4-40
Colin Branch –
6-0, 207, Stanford -- 4.39 in the 40... 23 reps of 225
pounds; related to both Cliff and Calvin Branch, former
NFL'ers, but had a hard time breaking into the
starting lineup at Stanford. 3-7th round
Gerome Sapp - 6-0, 215, Notre Dame, 3-5th
round
Cato June – Michigan 6-0 220 pounds,
5th round, 4.6-40
Shernard Newby - 6-1, 210, Virginia,
4-5th round
Jesse Sowells, 6-0, 204, Houston - developmental
project, 4-7th round
Derek Pagel – 6-1, 205, Iowa, 4.55
speed, 5-6th round
Jonathan Martin - 5-11, 215, South Carolina,
6-7th round
Ralph Turner - 6-2, 215, Purdue, 6-7th
round
Quarterback
Wow, what a difference a year can make. Kordell is out
- Tommy Maddox is in as starting QB. The problem the Steelers
face is a lack of depth. Kordell will be released any
day now and Charlie Batch is looking for the opportunity
to compete for a starting QB position somehwere else.
The Steelers need a Developmental Quarterback
and a veteran backup. Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich
will surely be gone before the Steelers pick in the first
round. That leaves Kyle Boller, Dave Ragone and others:
Carson Palmer – USC
, 6-4, 230: another Heisman bust drafted by the Bengals
(remember Peter Warick and Ki-Jana Carter)?
Byron Leftwich – Marshall , 6-5,
240: Those boys in W. Virginia aren't very bright, but
they sure can play some ball! Seriously, he works out
with Charlie Batch who has been really impressed with
his mental abilities as a QB.
Kyle Boller – California, 6-3,
233: He made a great impression at the combines and the
Steelers probably won't be able to get him unless they
trade up.
Chris Simms – Texas , 6-5, 225:
Disapointing college career, but he should be an excellent
Pro QB one day...
Dave Ragone – Louisville , 6-3,
250: Reminds me of Neil O'Donnell - big and slow footed
with a good arm.
Rex Grossman - Florida, 6-2, 220: Beware
of Florida QB's and WR's because the passing oriented
offense that they played in College inflates their real
value.
Seneca Wallace - Iowa State, 5-11, 196,
A Stewart/Ward/Randle-El type of player who visited the
Steelers 4/9/03. 4.5 speed. 3-4th round.
Cornerback
Chad Scott didn't have a great
season, but he's the best CB the Steelers have, so he's
not moving to Free Safety. Dwayne Washington had a very
good season until the Playoff loss to Tennessee. Usually
a sure tackler, Washington missed a big tackle in OT.
That's what the Steelers have always required of their
corners: tackling ability. They are alone in the flat
with recievers and they must make 1 on 1 tackles. To do
this, you need to be big - around 6 foot and 200 pounds.
The problem is they also have to be able to run as fast
as anyone on the field. It requires a tremendous athlete
to play CB in the Steelers 3-4 Defense. Andre
Woolfolk (6-1 195, 4.46) of Oklahoma fits the
bill athletically, but only played 2 seasons on Defense.
The Steelers would love to give him a year or two to develop
into a starting CB. Alas, he won't last until the 27th
pick, nor will Terrence Newman (Kansas
State 5-11 180, 4.38) and Marcus Trufant
(Washington State 5-11 185, 4.38).
Dennis Weathersby
– Oregon State 6-1 205 pounds: Ran a 4.39 - 40 at
the combines. On 4/21/03, Weathersby was shot 3 times
in the back in Pasadena. My most heartfelt blessings go
to him for a healthy recovery and may his assailants be
brought to justice.
Rashean Mathis – Bethune-Cookman,
6-1, 203, 4.42 - 40 at the combines. Dominated play at
a small school, late 1st - early 2nd round
Sammy Davis – Texas A&M
6-0 186, 4.41 speed, 2nd round
Eugene Wilson –
Illinois 5-10 190 pounds, 4.40 speed, 2nd round
Drayton Florence – Tuskegee 6-0
198, 4.39 speed, looked very good at Senior Bowl against
top competition. 2nd-3rd round
Nnamdi Asomugha - California,
6-2 1/2, 210, 4.4 speed, 3-4th
round
Kevin Garrett – 5-9,194,
SMU, ran the fastest 40 time at the Combines: 4.31, but
is short, 3-5th round
Charles Tillman – Louisiana-Lafayette 6-1
200, 4.43 speed, 4-6th round
Shane Walton – Notre Dame 5-10 185 pounds,
4.7 speed: Just makes plays, as in the Senior Bowl to
clinch the game. Isn't fast or big. 4-5th round
DeMario Suggs - Michigan St. 5-11, 196,
4.45 speed and lifted 225 lbs. an amazing 27 times! 4-6th
round
Ivan Taylor - Louisiana-Lafayette 6-0
195 pounds
Derell Poland – 6-1, 210, Morgan
State, 4.48 speed, 6-7th round
Trent Findley - 6'0", 196, Tennessee-Martin,
4.44/40
Jesse Sowells - Houston, 5-11 3/8,
197 pounds, 4.5 speed
Chris Crocker - Marshall, 5-11, 185,
4.5 speed
Running
Back
It's tough to admit, but there
isn't much tread left on the Bus. He claims that he has
at least one more good year in him. He just turned 30,
so he's probably right. But his one more productive season
may come over the period of 2 years because of knee injuries.
Amos Zeroue is a nice back, but doesn't carry the load
for a full season - he's best as a 3rd down back. Chris
Fuamatu-Maafala is repeatedly hurt becasue he loves hitting
people so much. The Steelers need a new young, fast, Power
Back to replace Jerome Bettis and carry the offense
in the 4th quarter of games. Unfortunately, this is a
bad year to draft a premier back coming out of college.
The prospects:
Larry Johnson - 6'1",
225, Penn State, Ran for more than 2000 yards last year
and almost won the Heisman. Looks like a poor man's Eddie
George. Ran 4.4-40 and vertical leaped 41" at his
Pro-day, late 1st round.
Musa Smith - 6'1, 230, Georgia, Ran a
4.5 40 and is very big. 2nd round
Justin Fargas - 6'1", 220, USC,
Ran a 4.38 40 but was injured a lot. 2-3 round
Chris Brown - 6' 3", 220 lbs, Colorado,
3rd round
Kerry Carter - 6'1", 238, Stanford,4.55/40
4th round
Cecil Sapp- 5'11", 230",Colorado
St., 5th round
Dontae Walker - 5' 10" 235 lbs Mississippi
State. Had kidney problems and may not play football again.
?? round.
Defensive
Lineman
The Steelers don't have a pressing need for a new starting
lineman, but Kimo Von Olhoffen is 31 years old and his
backup, Rodney Bailey, may not be an every down lineman.
Besides, the team could always use another 6'4" 300+
pound defender to beat up on offensive linemen. The Steelers
like their linemen to be tenacious and possess the "non-stop
motor" to chase sideline to sideline. This year is
especially deep in big, nose tackle types that the Steelers
use in their 3 down linemen. The best should all be picked
before the Steelers draft. These include Jimmy
Kennedy (6-4, 322, Penn State), William
Joseph, (6-5, 308, Miami), Jonathan Sullivan,
(6-4, 315, Georgia), Rien Long (Washington
St. 6-6 302), Dewayne Robertson (Kentucky,
6-6, 310), and Kevin Williams (Ok St.,
6-5, 300). Others who should be available:
Kenny Peterson –
Ohio St., 6-3, 298: played behind Rodney Bailey in Columbus,
Late 1st round
Ty Warren – 6-5, 307, Texas A&M,
Late 1st round
Anthony Adams - 5-11, 293, Penn St.,
2-3rd Round
Jarrett Johnson - 6-4, 285, Alabama,
2-4th round
Terrance Martin – NC St., 6-3,
299: Cower is an NC St. alum, 3rd round
Tyler Brayton - Colorado, 6-6, 277, Another
Aaron Smith in the making? 3-5th round
Ian Scott – 6-3, 305, Florida
Sam Rayburn – 6-3, 305, Tulsa
Corey Williams – 6-4, 295, Arkansas
State
Garrett Smith – 6-3, 305, Utah
Rashad Moore – 6-4, 295, Tennessee
Walter Sampson – 6-4, 290, Louisiana-Lafayette
Darrell Campbell – 6-4, 295, Notre
Dame
LaWaylon Brown, 6-5, 295, Oklahoma State
David Thompson, 6-5, 290, Ohio State
James Lee – 6-4, 325, Oregon St.
Tight
End
When Tight End Mark Bruener got injured last year,
the running game suffered again. Jerame Tuman is a nice
receiver, but not able to replace Bruener's blocking (few
people can). The Steelers re-signed Jerame Tuman to a
3-year deal on Feb 28, so there is less need for a new
TE although it would be nice to have a young 3rd
TE. Ideally, the Steelers are looking big, blocking
tight end who can also catch some red zone balls. The
Steelers signed Buffalo Bills tight end Jay Riemersma
to a 3-year deal on March 19 and re-signed Matt Cushing
a couple days earlier. So, it doesn't look like the steelers
can afford to draft a Tight End. Prospects are as follows:
Jason Witten – Tennessee
, 6-5, 265: The only first rounder this year, could he
eventualy replace Bruener?
Dallas Clark – Iowa, 6-4, 244,
First Team All-American and won the Mackey Award as the
best college Tight End. 4.6 speed.
Teyo Johnson – Stanford 6-7 255
pounds - He's compared to All-Pro TE Tony Gonzalez, but
the Steelers don't need another receiver.
Aaron Walker – Florida, 6-6, 250:
At the Senior Bowl, he blocked well.
Mike Pinkard – Arizona State ,
6-5, 265: A Tood Heap comparison is easy
Spencer Nead – BYU 6-4 270 pounds:
another pass catching TE from BYU
Benny Joppru – Michigan , 6-4,
265: A Jerame Tuman clone, but much faster.
Robert Johnson – Auburn, 6-6, 275:
Maybe he can play left tackle?
LJ Smith – Rutgers, 6-3, 258: Ran
a 4.64 40 at the Combines with 26 reps of 225 lbs.
Steelers First Round Draft Selection Probability*:
| Pre-Draft Odds | 2003 Draft Selection |
| Larry Johnson - 1:4 | #27 Kansas City |
| Troy Polamalu - 1:6 | #16 Steelers traded1st round picks with Kansas City |
| Sammy Davis - 1:8 | #29 San Diego |
| Ty Warren - 1:10 | #13 New England |
| Kenny Peterson - 1:10 | #79 Green Bay |
| Andre Woolfolk - 1:12 | #28 Tennesee |
| Rex Grossman - 1:12 | #22 Chicago |
| Rashean Mathis - 1:20 | #39 Jacksonville |
| Rien Long - 1:20 | #126 Tennesee |
| Kyle Boller - 1:25 | #19 Baltimore |
| Wayne Hunter - 1:25 | #73 Seattle |
| Mike Doss - 1:50 | #58 Indianapolis |
| Dave Ragone - 1:50 | #88 Houston |
| Chris Simms - 1:50 | #97 Tampa Bay |
| Jason Witten - 1:100 | #69 Dallas |
| Donnie Shell - 1:1,000,000 | NA |
